The large lady is hoisted on to the small white horse, which is decked out in the colours of the New Patriotic party. She sits triumphant, draped head to toe in the party’s red, white and blue regalia, while onlookers snap her picture. Thousands have streamed to the Ghanaian opposition party’s pre-election rally. Though they are NPP to a man, woman and baby (if the colours of swaddling are anything to go by), everyone asked expresses a desire for free and fair elections. It seems more important to them than the result itself. 那个大块头的女士被托到小白马背上,马被装点成新爱国党(NPP)的代表色。她坐在那里,一副欢欣鼓舞的样子,从头到脚也披着该党红白蓝三色的服饰,而观众在给她拍照。在当时还是反对党的新爱国党举行的这个竞选集会上,参加者达数千人之众。尽管就每一个男人、女人和婴儿(如果襁褓的颜色足以为凭的话)而言,他们都是新爱国党,但每一个被问及的人都表达了对自由和公平的选举的愿望。对他们而言,这似乎比结果本身更重要。
“Democracy has really helped Ghana,” says Nana Anim Obiri, a chief from the eastern town of Adukrom, even as he voices concern that this week’s general election — the first round of which is today — may be rigged. “Democracy is a competition, so you have to do something to get re-elected. If it weren’t for democracy, Ghana would not have travelled this far.” “民主真的令加纳受益了,”一位来自加纳东部城镇Adukrom的酋长那那?阿尼姆?奥比利(Nana Anim Obiri)说,尽管他也表达了对大选可能被操纵的担忧。加纳在12月份举行了总统大选,当天进行了第一轮投票。“民主是一种竞争,所以你必须有所作为才能再度当选。要不是实行了民主,加纳不可能走到这么远。”
The chief’s sentiments may strike one as touching — naive, even. Perhaps Ghana would have done better under a dictatorship (in truth, it tried that without much success). In any case, the majority of Africans do not like dictators. In a continent of strongmen — and in an era when caudillo-style politicians from Russia to China and from Japan to the US hold sway — belief in democracy in Africa is alive and well. 这位酋长的感想也许让人感到触动,甚至觉得天真。或许在独裁统治下,加纳会发展得更好(事实上,该国尝试了独裁统治,并不太成功)。无论如何,大多数非洲人都不喜欢独裁者。在一个“强人”辈出的大陆,而且正当到处都是“考迪罗”政治家在把持政坛——从俄罗斯到中国、从日本到美国,莫不如此——的时代,民主信念在非洲仍然生机勃勃。
That may sound like an outrageous statement about a continent notorious for its presidents for life, blatant vote-rigging and (at least until fairly recently) coup-prone armies. It may seem a particularly absurd claim in what has been, in many ways, a rotten year for African democracy. Long-serving leaders in Rwanda and Burundi 就非洲而言,这听起来也许是个令人吃惊的论断,这个大陆因总统终身执政、选举被公然操纵和军队动辄发起政变(起码不久以前军队还是如此)而闻名。这种说法在当下尤其显得荒谬,毕竟从很多方面来看,非洲民主都经历了糟糕的一年。在卢旺达和布隆迪,长期执政的领导人修改了宪法,以便让自己继续把持权力;在乌干达,选举蒙上了暴力的阴影;在加蓬,选举中发生了舞弊。即便是这些都比刚果民主共和国的情况要好,在这个国家,计划中的选举从未真正举行过。
changed the constitution to allow themselves to stay on; elections were marred by violence in Uganda and stolen in Gabon. Even that was better than the Democratic Republic of Congo, where scheduled elections never took place at all. 然而,非洲民意调查显示,尽管出现了这些倒退,民主仍然是一种强烈的理想。原因或许在于,现有民主模式的缺陷太大了。民调机构非洲晴雨表(Afrobarometer)表示,在一项针对36个国家的逾5.3万人的调查中,67%的人表示,民主“总是优于”其他选项。只有11%的人认为总统独裁和一党统治是可行的选择。
Yet surveys of African opinion suggest that, despite all the backsliding, democracy remains a potent ideal. Perhaps that is because the version that actually exists is so horribly flawed. In a poll of more than 53,000 people in 36 countries, 67 per cent said democracy was “always preferable” to the alternative, according to Afrobarometer. Just 11 per cent saw presidential dictatorship or one-party rule as a viable option. “民主在非洲还没过蜜月期,”加纳民主发展中心(Ghana Centre for Democratic Development)执行主任伊曼纽尔?吉马-博阿迪(Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi)说。“民主仍是很多非洲人心里的强烈愿望。”
“Democracy has not exhausted its honeymoon in Africa,” says Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi, executive director for the Ghana Centre for Democratic Development. “It is still a strong aspiration of many Africans.” 把非洲这种情绪与西方民意对比一下。在西方,尽管存在种种缺陷,但真正的民主已存在数十年了。根据罗伯特?福阿(Roberto Foa)和雅恰?蒙特(Yascha Mounk)不久前的一篇论文,在美国,民主信仰在逐年式微。他们引用了“世界价值观调查”(World Values Survey)的结果。该调查向美国人提问,他们是否支持“让军队‘接管’”的观点。1995年,每16个人中有1人赞同。如今该比例已稳步上升至六分之一。较年轻的美国人对民主的认可程度,比他们的祖辈们要低得多。当受调查者被要求在从1至10的分值范围内给民主打分时,二战前出生的人当中有72%给民主打了最高分。而在1980年后出生的人中,这个比例约为30%。
Compare that sentiment with attitudes in the west, where genuine democracy — with all its imperfections — has existed for decades. In the US, according to a recent paper by Roberto Foa and Yascha Mounk, faith in democracy is in steady decline. They cite findings in the World Values Survey, which asked Americans whether they approved of the idea of “having the army ‘take over’”. In 1995, one in 16 agreed. Since then, that number has risen steadily to one in six. Younger Americans are much less wedded to the idea of democracy than their grandparents. When respondents were asked to put a value on democracy on a scale of one to 10, 72 per cent of those born before the second world war assigned the maximum value. Among those born since the 1980s, about 30 per cent did. 在几代人的时间里,美国已从理想主义滑向了犬儒主义。而许多非洲人仍是理想主义者。近期非洲小国冈比亚的选举——残酷的独裁者叶海亚?贾梅(Yahya Jammeh)在民主选举中被击败——在整个非洲引发极大热情,原因正在于此。
America has gone from idealism to cynicism in a few generations. Many Africans are still idealists. That is why last week’s election in tiny Gambia — in which Yahya Jammeh, an appalling dictator, was defeated in a democratic process — has been treated with wild enthusiasm around the continent. “That has been the most wonderful 冈比亚的选举结果是不寻常的,但并非独一无二。去年,古德勒克?乔纳森(Goodluck Jonathan)在选举落败后让出了尼日利亚总统职位,震惊非洲大陆。利比亚明年举行选举之后,埃伦?约翰逊-瑟利夫(Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf)将
surprise in 2016,” says Christopher Fomunyoh of the Washington-based National Democratic Institute, referring to Mr Jammeh’s acceptance of the result. 卸任,在她的两个任期中,可怕的内战没有再爆发。在南非,曾经不可撼动的非国大(ANC)在地方选举中遭遇失败——这一趋势将迫使该党进行改革,否则最终将被从政府中清除出去。
The Gambian outcome is unusual but it is not unique. Last year, Goodluck Jonathan surprised the continent by relinquishing the Nigerian presidency after electoral defeat. Following elections next year in Liberia, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf will step down as president after serving two terms that have drawn a line under the country’s terrible civil war. In South Africa, the once unassailable African National Congress is being beaten at the ballot box in local elections — a trend that will either force it to change or, eventually, push it out of government. 我们绝不能抱着理想化的看法。非洲人渴望民主,大体上是因为他们没有民主。但不像世界许多地区,民主的火焰在这里仍在闪耀。
One must not take a rose-tinted view. Africans yearn for democracy mostly because they do not have it. But, unlike in much of the world, the flame is still flickering. 译者/何黎