A dangerous arms race is under way in Asia. How the next US president deals with American allies in the region will decide the outcome of that race. 一场危险的军备竞赛正在亚洲进行。下一任美国总统如何与美国在该地区的盟友打交道，将决定这场竞赛的结果。
In a recent interview with the Financial Times, the Filipino defence minister explained how his country is rearming in the face of rising tension around its borders. The most obvious threat is an ascendant China, which has made sweeping territorial claims in the South China Sea that overlap with the claims of many of its maritime neighbours, including the Philippines. 最近在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，菲律宾国防部长解释了菲律宾在面对边境线日益紧张的情况下是如何重整军备的。最明显的威胁是崛起的中国。中国对南中国海(South China Sea)提出了大范围的领土主张，与其很多海上邻国的领土主张重叠，其中包括菲律宾。
Manila’s inferior military capacity has prompted its government to seek accommodation with Beijing, even to the point of promising to buy Chinese weapons and materiel. this state of affairs should serve as a wake-up call in Washington and alert Donald Trump’s incoming administration to a much broader problem facing the US in Asia. 菲律宾糟糕的军事实力促使其政府寻求与北京方面和解，甚至达到菲方承诺购买中国武器和物资的地步。此种事态应该给华盛顿方面敲响警钟，并且提醒唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)新政府注意美国在亚洲面临的更广泛问题。
The US presence in Asia since the second world war has largely served as a stabilising force, notwithstanding the upheaval of Korean and Vietnam wars. It allowed countries to prosper and trade despite lingering animosity from wartime atrocities and the legacy of colonialism. 自二战以来，美国在亚洲基本上是作为稳定力量而存在，虽然曾出现过朝鲜战争和越南战争的动荡。这使得各国可以繁荣发展和进行贸易，尽管战时暴行和殖民主义的残留影响带来的仇恨仍然挥之不去。
The fact that such a staunch ally as the Philippines no longer feels it can rely on the US to defend its interests is a sign of just how much American prestige and power has eroded in this part of the world. 诸如菲律宾这样的坚定盟友不再认为自己可以依靠美国来维护自身利益，这显示出美国在该地区的声望和权力已在何种程度上削弱。
That is before Mr Trump has even taken office. During his campaign, the president-elect vowed to reduce US obligations abroad and even suggested he could remove the nuclear umbrella that currently protects South Korea and Japan. That umbrella has so far stopped the Asian arms race from going nuclear. 而此时特朗普甚至还未上台。在竞选期间，这位当选总统发誓要减少美国在海外的义务，甚至暗示他可能会撤走目前保护韩国和日本的核保护伞。迄今为止，该保护伞一直阻止着亚洲军备竞赛走向核武器化。
Encouraging Korea and Japan to develop their own nuclear capacity would be a crass miscalculation on the part of the new US administration. But if Asia is to enjoy many more years of peace and stability, Mr Trump will have to do more than avoid disastrous mistakes. He must make clear to America’s traditional allies that they will no longer be taken for granted and that the US is committed to preserving the balance of power in the region. Manila is the first of the “wobbly dominoes” the Trump administration must deal with. 对美国新政府而言，鼓励韩国和日本发展核能力将是一次愚蠢的失算。但如果亚洲未来想继续享受和平与稳定，特朗普将不止需要避免犯下灾难性的错误。他必须向美国的传统盟友表明，他们不再被认为是理所当然的盟友，并且美国致力于维护该地区的实力平衡。菲律宾是特朗普政府必须处理的第一块“摇摇欲倒的多米诺骨牌”。
On this front there is some cause for optimism. Since the US election, Rodrigo Duterte, the Filipino president, has dialled down his criticism of Washington and indicated he is looking forward to working with Mr Trump. For his part, Mr Trump appears to have set aside the Obama administration’s concerns over extrajudicial killings of thousands of alleged drug dealers and addicts since Mr Duterte came to power this year. 在这方面，有一些理由乐观。自美国大选以来，菲律宾总统罗德里戈?杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)减少了对华盛顿方面的批评，并示意他希望与特朗普合作。而特朗普似乎已经搁置了奥巴马政府对于今年杜特尔特上台以来法外处决数千名涉嫌贩毒和吸毒者一事的担忧。
From Mr Duterte’s perspective, criticism of human rights abuses was the biggest source of friction in the relationship. While the US under Mr Trump need not endorse these policies, it must find a way to work more closely with Manila as an unwavering friend and ally. 在杜特尔特看来，批评他践踏人权是菲律宾与美国关系出现摩擦的最主要原因。尽管特朗普领导下的美国不需要支持这些政策，但新政府必须找到作为坚定盟友与马尼拉方面建立更紧密合作的方式。
President Obama’s “pivot” to Asia, later rebranded as a “rebalance”, has failed in its objective of reassuring allies, checking America’s relative decline and slowing China’s rise in the region. Rearmament in the Philippines and Mr Duterte’s embrace of Beijing and Moscow are evidence of that. 奥巴马总统“重返”亚洲的战略（后改称为“再平衡”）未能实现在该地区安抚盟友、遏制美国相对衰落以及减缓中国崛起进程的目标。菲律宾重整军备以及杜特尔特拥抱中国和俄罗斯的举动就是证据。
Mr Trump has a genuine opportunity to reinforce America’s presence in Asia and confirm its role as a guarantor of stability and peace. There is a possibility however that he will do the opposite and allow his dealmaking instincts to upset the balance. The consequences of that would be a much riskier region, vulnerable to conflagration. 特朗普的确有机会强化美国在亚洲的存在并且证明美国作为稳定与和平守护者的角色。然而，他可能会背道而驰，使得他做交易的本性打乱地区平衡。后果将是亚洲风险大大上升、容易出现地区冲突。
译者/马柯斯
