Obama has four years to transform America’seconomy
The US election was fought on first principles: shouldgovernment be strengthened or dismantled? The answer wasresounding. The public wants better government, not lessgovernment.
美国总统大选是围绕着“要大政府、还是要小政府”的基本问题而展开的。选民的答案是响亮的。他们希望有更好的政府,而不希望削弱政府的角色。
Much of the economic debate in the US has been over short-term stimulus but the election turnedon long-term structural issues. Barack Obama solidly carried much of the Midwest because hechampioned an industrial policy for the automobile and allied industries. What saved the Midwestwas not a temporary stimulus but a skilful rescue package, complete with government financingand public investment in research and development directed at next-generation electric vehicles.
一段时间以来,美国经济辩论的主要议题都是短期刺激政策,但总统大选关注的则是长期的结构性问题。巴拉克 奥巴马(Barack Obama)之所以在中西部地区稳得多数支持,是因为他倡导扶持汽车及其配套行业的产业政策。拯救中西部不能靠临时刺激方案,而是要靠巧妙的一揽子救助方案,同时辅以下一代电动汽车研发方面的政府资助和公共投资。
Though climate change was the issue, neither candidate wanted to mention it played the leadingrole in the final act, in the form of Hurricane Sandy. Not only was the east coast reminded of thefuries of a rising ocean level; it was reminded again of the need for collective action to anticipate, ameliorate, and respond to emergencies.
尽管气候变化也是一个难题,但哪位总统候选人都不愿承认,由于飓风“桑迪”(Sandy)的到来,气候变化问题其实在竞选活动的最后关头扮演了主要角色。飓风桑迪不但让东海岸居民意识到海平面的急剧上升,而且再次表明美国有必要采取集体行动,以预测和应对紧急情况,并减轻其灾害。
The problem for Mr Obama in the second term is that he does not yet have an economic strategycommensurate with his vision of a proactive government. Low tax revenues continue to leave theUS vulnerable. The US government collected only 32 per cent of gross domestic product inrevenues last year, compared with 38 per cent in Canada, 45 per cent in Germany and 49 percent in Sweden. The latter countries can overcome budget deficits, poverty and outdatedinfrastructure. The US cannot. It will need a tax ratio like Canada’s by later this decade to get thejob done.
奥巴马在第二任期的问题,是他还没有形成支撑其“积极政府”构想的经济战略。低税收仍令政府脆弱不堪。去年,美国政府税收收入仅占国内生产总值(GDP)的32%,相比之下,这一比例在加拿大是38%,在德国是45%,在瑞典则是49%。后几个国家有能力解决预算赤字、贫穷人口和基础设施老旧的问题,但美国却做不到这一点。到本10年晚些时候,美国将需要把税率提高到与加拿大相当的水平,才能解决好上述几个问题。
Yet revenues are not enough.
然而,光是提高税收也是不够的。