欧洲央行(ECB)发布的一份研究论文称，美国投资者或许正在从存在泄露的经济数据发布中获利。
Macroeconomic news announcements can move markets, as traders watch for indications about how the economy is performing. The data are released to everyone at the same time to ensure fairness but ECB researchers said they had found evidence of “informed trading” ahead of US data releases.
由于交易员们会盯着表明经济运行状况的指标，宏观经济新闻的发布能够引起市场的变动。宏观经济数据要在同一时间公布给所有人，以确保公平。但欧洲央行的研究人员表示，他们发现有证据显示美国经济数据发布前存在“知情交易”。
Of the 21 market-moving announcements analysed, seven “show evidence of substantial informed trading before the official release time”, according to the paper, including two releases from the US government.
该论文称，在其分析的21例引起市场变动的数据公布中，有7例“给出了在官方发布时间前发生可观知情交易的证据”，其中2例涉及美国政府发布的数据。
The pre-release “price drift” accounts for about half of the overall price impact from the announcement. The researchers looked at the impact on futures tracking the S&P 500 stock index and the 10-year Treasury bond for the 30 minutes preceding the announcement.
数据发布前的“价格漂移”，约占数据发布对价格产生的总影响的一半。研究人员考察了数据发布前30分钟里，跟踪标普500指数(S&P 500)和10年期美国国债的期货的价格受到的影响。
The researchers also note that the price impact has become worse since 2008, and estimate that since 2008 profits in the S&P “e-mini” futures market alone amount to about $20m per year.
研究人员还指出，2008年以来这种价格影响变得愈发严重。他们估计，自2008年以来，仅在标普“e-mini”期货市场的获利就可达每年约2000万美元。
“These results imply that some traders have private information about macroeconomic fundamentals,” said the report. “The evidence suggests that the pre-announcement drift likely comes from a combination of information leakage and superior forecasting based on proprietary data collection and reprocessing of public information.”
“这些结果暗示，有些交易员有私下渠道获知宏观经济基本面信息。”论文称，“证据表明，数据公布前的价格漂移，很可能源于信息泄露、以及以自有数据集和对公开信息的再加工为基础的超强预测。”
The paper raises questions about the safeguards used to ensure data are protected up until scheduled release time. important economic indicators in the US are subject to the “Principle Federal Economic Indicator” guidelines, but the report notes that many distributors of the data are not subject to the same rules.
这份论文对用来保证数据在预定公布时间前得到保密的措施提出了质疑。美国重要经济指标的发布要遵守“主要联邦经济指标”(PFEI)指导方针，但该论文指出，许多数据发布机构并不受制于这一方针。
“To ensure fairness, no market participant should have access to this information until the official release time,” the report added. “Yet, in this paper we find strong evidence of informed trading before several key macroeconomic news announcements.”
“为了保证公平，任何市场参与方都不应在官方的发布时间之前获知此类信息。”论文补充称，“不过，在这份论文中，我们发现了几例关键宏观经济新闻发布前存在知情交易的确凿证据。”
“No question, the way markets sometime[s] trade before the numbers, it seems like someone knows them,” said Andrew Brenner at National Alliance Capital Markets.
“毫无疑问，市场有时会在数据公布之前发生变动，好像有人提前知道了消息，”National Alliance Capital Markets的安德鲁•布伦纳(Andrew Brenner)说。
