大数据分析认为中国房价可能要下跌
导读:中国房地产市场最近的招聘趋势，向我们传达了重要警告。
The current hiring trend in China’s housing market is eerily similar to that of 2013, and that sends an important warning signal.
中国房地产市场最近的招聘趋势，与2013年惊人地相似，而这向我们传达了一个重要的警告信号。
Keeping China’s property market in good shape is paramount to the country. It’s a huge driver of the country’s economic growth. The housing market is a key driver of loan growth, commodities demand, and employment.
保持中国房地产市场的良好状态对于国家十分重要。它是国家经济增长的巨大驱动力。房地产市场是贷款增长，大宗商品需求和就业的关键驱动力。
Chinese officials tried to clear a housing glut by loosening lending standards and delivering a range of stimulus measures last year.
去年中国官员试图通过放松信贷标准和一系列刺激措施，来解决住房过剩问题。
Real-estate investment picked up, and property prices in first-tier cities exploded. Even when the government tightened standards in mid-March, the buying frenzy carried on. Housing prices jumped in 65 out of 70 cities in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
房地产投资回升，一线城市房产价格暴增。甚至当政府3月份提高标准后，抢购狂潮也持续进行。根据国家统计局，四月份70个城市中65个城市的房价都上涨。
That could be about to change. Guidepoint, a firm that analyzes big data across various industries, recently released a report on China job postings.
Guidepoint，一个分析各行业大数据的公司，最近根据中国招聘信息发表一项报道说，这可能要改变。
The firm found that since early 2013, the spikes and drops in new job postings from property agencies have preceded a similar pattern in the overall housing market by about six months.
该公司发现：自从2013年，房地产机构招聘信息数量的增长和降低，与大约6个月范围的房地产市场变化规律相似。
The number of new job postings from property agencies now seems to be topping out, according to the research, suggesting a drop in property prices could be on the way."If this continues, the recent topping off of new job posting growth would signal that the housing prices across China may be ready to turn yet again," said Erik Haines, who leads the data and analytics team at Guidepoint.
根据这项研究，房地产机构最近的招聘信息数量已经平顶，这表明房地产价格要下跌。“如果这种现象持续，最近招聘信息增长平顶，是中国房价将再次转变方向的信号，”Erik Haines说，他是Guidepoint公司数据和分析团队的领头人。
The homebuilding industry shows a similar trend, which again points to the likelihood of a price drop and fewer construction jobs to fill.
住宅建筑行业也表示出相同趋势，也再次证明房价要下跌，建筑工作要减少。
That could have some dark consequences. By the IMF’s calculations, residential investment made up 15% of fixed-asset investment and 15% of total urban employment in China in 2015. with about 911 million working-age people, that means more than 136 million jobs may be at risk.
这可能有一些不好的后果。根据国际贷币基金组织的计算，2015年中国住宅投资占固定资产投资的15%，也占城镇就业的15%。大约9亿1100万适龄劳动人口，这意味着超过1亿3600万人的工作将不保。
Let’s not forget thatChina’s labor market is the No. 1 concern for the country’s leadership.
让我们不要忘记，中国的劳动力市场，是该国领导人首要关注的问题。
Industry watchers are increasingly worried about investors’ speculative behavior and an impending burst of the real-estate bubble. Analysts at Capital Economics, for example, have warned of a "sharp correction in prices at some point."
行业观察者越来越担心投资者的投机行为和一触即发的房地产泡沫。例如，Capital Economics的分析师警告了“迟早发生的价格大幅回调。”
Well, this may be the time.
好吧，可能到时候了。
