委内瑞拉债务违约 中国学到了什么教训？

导读:委内瑞拉经济危机凸显中国对新兴世界的发展贷款模式存在问题。这个中国发展贷款的最大客户违约了，拖延支付200亿至240亿美元未偿债务的本金。

China’s provision of development finance to the emerging world has always been about much more than building infrastructure to reap a commercial return. It has also been about changing destinies. Beijing selected countries that it aimed to lift from poverty, while forging political alliances and creating markets for Chinese goods.

中国为新兴世界提供发展融资一直以来都不只是为了通过建设基础设施获取商业回报。它还关乎改变一些国家的命运。中国精心选择一些国家，希望帮助他们摆脱贫困，同时与他们建立政治联盟，并为中国商品打开市场。

The defining characteristic of China’s power projection is its ability to get things done.

中国力量投射出的鲜明特征是其把事情做成的能力。

Thus, a mounting economic crisis in Venezuela comes as a big blow. Caracas is the biggest client of China’s state-orchestrated development lending, accepting some $65bn in loans since 2007 for projects such as oil refineries, gold mines and railways. But in May this year, Venezuela engineered a default under which it has deferred paying the principal — and only honours the interest — on outstanding debts estimated at $20bn-$24bn.

因此，委内瑞拉愈演愈烈的经济危机对中国是一个沉重打击。加拉加斯是中国政府主导的发展贷款的最大客户。自2007年以来，委内瑞拉在炼油厂、金矿及铁路等项目上共获得中国约650亿美元的贷款。但今年5月，委内瑞拉违约了，拖延支付约200亿至240亿美元未偿债务的本金，只支付利息。

Worse may be yet to come. Venezuelan inflation is running at about 800 per cent and a chronic shortage of US dollars is preventing Caracas from paying some of the contractors that keep its oil supplies flowing. Since China’s loans are secured against this dwindling output of oil, pulses are racing in Beijing. In addition, some of the projects undertaken with Chinese money, including a partly built high-speed railway, have been vandalised and abandoned.

更糟糕的可能还在后面。委内瑞拉的通胀率已经高达800%左右，长期美元短缺使加拉加斯无法付款给保障其石油供应流畅的部分承包商。由于中国的贷款以这些产量不断减少的石油为担保，北京方面对此感到紧张。此外，一些依靠中国资金建设的项目已被破坏或放弃，包括一条半途而废的高铁。

The reversal also suggests that Beijing’s developmental model is at fault. Its institutions have eschewed the strict conditionality and emphasis on governance that characterises the approach of the World Bank and other western-backed multilateral organisations. Instead of looking backwards into a country’s credit record, it has tried to look forward to what it might achieve with sufficient investment and infrastructure.

这种反转也表明，北京的发展贷款模式存在问题。中国的金融机构回避了世界银行和其他西方支持的多边机构奉行的严格贷款条件以及对治理的重视。中国不去回顾一个国家的信用记录，而是展望在大力投资建设基础设施后自己可以实现什么。

In the case of Venezuela, at least, this approach is found to be wanting. The unorthodox nature of Venezuela’s economic policies were abundantly clear a decade ago when China’s leaders conducted a diplomatic love affair with Hugo Chávez, the charismatic late president. But Beijing nevertheless poured money into a country that had defaulted on or rescheduled debts to overseas creditors four times in the preceding 30 years.

至少在向委内瑞拉放贷这件事上，这种贷款方式是有欠缺的。中国领导人10年前对委内瑞拉魅力非凡的已故总统乌戈.查韦斯发展密切外交关系时，委内瑞拉经济政策的非正统性已经非常清楚了。然而，北京方面还是将大量资金贷给这个过去30年曾经对海外债权人违约或进行债务重组已达四次的国家。

Now, Chinese officials say, a colder, harder approach towards extending loans is being adopted not only in the case of Venezuela but all over the emerging world. This is likely to have important ramifications: China is the biggest source of global development finance with more loans outstanding than the six western-backed multilateral agencies put together.

中国官员称，如今，不仅对委内瑞拉，中国在对整个新兴世界提供贷款时都采取了更冷静、更严格的方式。这很可能带来重大的影响，因为中国是全球发展融资最大的来源地，其贷款额度超过了六个西方支持的多边机构的总和。

But as China rethinks its approach, the west should resist schadenfreude. At times, the approach of its development-lending institutions has been as dilatory, nitpicking and superior, as China’s has been impulsive and cavalier. Besides, the world needs Chinese money and the expertise of its huge infrastructure construction corporations. In Asia alone, the infrastructure gap requires about $1tn a year by 2020.

但在中国反思其放贷方式之际，西方不应对此幸灾乐祸。中国的发展贷款机构鲁莽、不计后果，而西方的发展贷款机构有时则行事拖沓、吹毛求疵、傲慢。除此之外，世界需要中国的资金和中国大型基建公司的专业知识。仅在亚洲，2020年之前的基建资金缺口每年就需要约1万亿美元。

One way forward would be for Chinese and western-backed development institutions to work together. Their qualities — the singularity of purpose and speed of execution of China and the due diligence of the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and others — could combine for optimum results.

未来的一条出路是中西方的发展机构携手合作。双方的特点——中国的目的性和执行速度与世行、亚洲开发银行等机构的尽职调查——结合起来可能实现最优结果。

But this can only be a partial solution because China is overwhelmingly a bilateral actor. For its own sake and that of the countries it lends to, it should borrow more liberally from the west’s playbook, assessing country risks on the basis of governance, transparency and due process.

但这只是一部分解决方案，解决不了全部问题，因为中国奉行双边路线。为了本国和借贷国的利益，中国应更多地借鉴西方模式，从治理、透明度和正当程序等方面评估一个国家的风险。