人民币升值势头看似不可阻挡。人民币汇率接二连三刷新历史纪录，使“红币”(redback)的投资魅力显露无遗。
China’s economy is in the ascendancy, and its currency will go with it.
中国经济蒸蒸日上，人民币自然也将水涨船高。
Hong Kong is where China’s currency meets international investors – permanent residents in the city can open renminbi bank accounts, and buy up to HK$20,000 ($2,565) worth every day. Appetite looks robust – renminbi as a share of Hong Kong’s retail deposit base grew from 0.1 to about 5 per cent during 2010, according to the Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank.
香港是人民币与国际投资者会合之地。本地永久居民可在银行开立人民币账户，单日最多可换购价值2万港元（合2565美元）的人民币。人民币在香港似乎颇为吃香：根据香港金融管理局(Monetary Authority)的数据，2010年期间，人民币存款占香港零售存款总额的比重从0.1%上升到5%左右。金管局相当于香港的央行。
Because of the Chinese currency’s lack of convertibility, the main reason to hold it remains for speculation. HSBC offered a payroll facility for clients wanting to pay staff in renminbi, but so far there have been no takers.
由于人民币不可兑换，港人持有人民币仍以投机为主要目的。汇丰(HSBC)为客户提供一项人民币工资支付服务，但迄今没有一家雇主响应。
“The average Hong Kong resident views the renminbi itself as a half-decent investment opportunity,” says Mark McCombe, chief executive of HSBC’s Hong Kong operations. “It may not be long before taxi drivers and restaurants start accepting it. But for most people – they are paid in Hong Kong dollars, they buy things with Hong Kong dollars, their lives are in Hong Kong dollars.”
汇丰香港业务行政总裁马凯博(Mark McCombe)表示：“香港普通居民把持有人民币视作一种还算过得去的投资机会。也许不久之后，的士司机和餐厅会开始接受人民币。但是对大多数人来说，他们拿的是港币工资，购物用港币，日常生活中用的都是港币。”
For all the hype about the rise of the redback, those banking on even modest gains may be disappointed.
尽管人民币升值说甚嚣尘上，但即便是指望获得适度回报的人士可能也会失望。
At the start of March, Yi Gang, deputy governor at the Chinese central bank, said the renminbi exchange rate was at its closest yet to “equilibrium”. The powerful manufacturing lobby is also worried about further appreciation, putting pressure on the government to keep the redback’s rise in first gear.
3月初，中国央行副行长易纲表示，人民币汇率水平正接近有史以来的最佳“均衡”状态。此外，强大的制造业游说军团对人民币进一步升值忧心忡忡，因而积极向政府施加压力，要求把升值速度保持在最低水平。
Since the People’s Bank of China announced it was moving to a slightly more flexible exchange-rate regime last June, the renminbi has returned to its path of gradual appreciation. But in that time it has risen just 4.3 per cent, outperforming only a handful of currencies in the region, including the Pakistani rupee and the Vietnamese dong.
去年6月，中国央行宣布小幅增强人民币汇率弹性，人民币从此恢复渐进升值。然而，自那以来人民币仅升值4.3%。就亚洲地区而言，其升值幅度只胜过区区几种货币，包括巴基斯坦卢比和越南盾。
only four currencies in Asia have moved less in any direction. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has leapt 13 per cent, the Singapore dollar 10 per cent and the Korean Won 9.5 per cent.
亚洲地区只有四种货币的涨跌幅度小于人民币。而同期内日元汇率飙升13%，新加坡元和韩元分别升值10%和9.5%。
The action in the forward market suggests continued plodding gains. Non-deliverable forwards – or NDFs – are essentially a derivatives contract pricing future values. Over the next 12 months, the market points to less than 2 per cent of further appreciation.
远期市场的动态表明，人民币仍将缓慢升值。无本金交割远期外汇交易（Non-deliverable Forwards，简称NDF）本质上是一种对未来价值进行定价的衍生品合约。NDF市场预示，在未来12个月内，人民币后续升值幅度将小于2%。
While the more bullish forecasts point to a rise of anything up to 6 per cent, consensus is for 4.1 per cent by year end, according to a recent poll of economists by Bloomberg. many analysts remain doubtful.
彭博(Bloomberg)近期对经济学家进行调查显示，比较乐观的预测是年底前最多将升值6%，但预测的共识落在4.1%水平上。但不少分析师对这样的预测仍抱怀疑态度。
“Over the next year or so, investors may be disappointed. It’s not undervalued by as much as some would hope,” says Ashley Davies, senior FX strategist at Commerzbank in Singapore.
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)驻新加坡高级外汇策略师阿什利?戴维斯(Ashley Davies)表示：“在接下来一年左右的时间里，投资者或许会感到失望。人民币低估程度其实不像一些人所期盼的那么大。”
Inflation is also a factor. China’s prices surged at the end of 2010, prompting a round of monetary tightening from the central bank.
通胀也是一个因素。2010年底中国物价飙涨，促使中国央行启动货币紧缩周期。
China has used a stronger currency to help damp the effects of imported inflation – principally caused by rising commodity prices. So long as China is battling inflation, there is potential for faster appreciation. But that may be a temporary phenomenon.
中国一直在借助人民币升值抑制输入型通胀。这种通胀主要是大宗商品价格不断上涨引起的。只要中国在对抗通胀，人民币就有加快升值的可能。但是，这也许只是一种暂时现象。
“once China gets a grip on inflation, there could be a reduced need for appreciation,” says Albert Leung, FX strategist at Citi. “The [renminbi] is no longer as undervalued as a few years ago. It will still appreciate, but it’s not going to be exciting. Over the longer term, we’re likely to see more modest appreciation, and more two-way risk.”
花旗(Citi)外汇策略师Albert Leung表示：“一旦中国控制住通胀，升值的需要就可能减弱。目前人民币低估程度已经不像几年前那么严重。它仍然会升值，但是不会达到让人兴奋的程度。从长远来看，我们可能看到更多小幅升值，有涨有跌的风险也将更加明显。”
Some analysts go even further. TJ Bond, chief Asia economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch – though bullish on the currency – says the renminbi “is not significantly undervalued”, and will even become overvalued during the next few months.
有些分析师的观点更激进。美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)亚太区首席经济学家蒂莫西?杰姆斯?邦德(TJ Bond)仍然看好人民币，但他表示，目前人民币“并没有严重低估”，在未来几个月甚至将变为高估。
“On a risk/reward basis, it has exceeded any other currency in the region,” says Daniel Hui, senior FX strategist at HSBC.
汇丰外汇策略师许尚贤(Daniel Hui)表示：“从风险报酬比来看，人民币已经超出亚洲其他任何一种货币。”
One thing that might facilitate a more rapid rise of the redback is a faster opening up of the Chinese capital account. Beijing maintains strict controls on money flowing in or out of the mainland for investment. Pilot projects to allow residents in Wenzhou and Shanghai to invest overseas suggest that authorities are looking at new ways to liberalise some of those restrictions.
假如中国加快开放资本账户，可能会推动人民币加快升值。目前中国政府仍然严格管制进出境的投资资金。在温州和上海开展的允许个人投资海外的试点表明，当局正在研究放宽部分管制的新途径。
“Historically, economies have either had an open or a closed capital account. once you choose to open it, it feeds itself, making it very difficult to open the capital account gradually in practice,” says Mr Davies.
戴维斯表示：“从历史上来看，一个经济体要么开放资本账户，要么封闭资本账户，而一旦选择开放，整个过程就会自我增强，这意味着渐进开放资本账户在实践中极其困难。”
He believes a rapid opening of the capital account could push the renminbi to strengthen faster. 他认为，假如中国迅速开放资本账户，人民币升值步伐可能会加快。
But the consensus view points to a slow pace of reform. “Gradualism has worked well for the Chinese. We’ve seen some important steps in the opening of the capital account, but it’s a journey of a thousand miles”, says Mr Bond.
但主流观点认为，改革将是缓慢的。邦德表示：“对中国人来说，渐进模式迄今很管用。在开放资本账户方面，我们看到中国政府采取了一些重大举措，但这是千里之行。”
