Three Morgan Stanley analysts are the latest to weigh in on an old question that has lately resurfaced among China-watching economists: How much longer can China continue to grow at a 10% a year and provide a rocket-ship-sized engine of growth for a sputtering world economy? Associated Press
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的三位分析师最近加入了一场有关老问题的争论：中国每年10%的增长速度还能保持多久？还能继续充当全球经济高速运转的增长引擎多长时间？这个问题近来在关注中国的经济学家中再次引发了争论。
Not much longer, say the three, but the deceleration will be slight, to an 8% annual growth rate through 2020. That would be a growth record that nearly any country would envy.
在这三位分析师看来，不会有多久了。但增长速度也不会大幅放缓，到2020年之前中国还将维持8%的年增长速度。这样的增长记录恐怕任何一个国家都会嫉妒。
China optimists and pessimists agree on certain propositions:
关于中国经济增长前景，无论是乐观者还是悲观者，都会同意以下几个命题：
-- No country can grow at 10% a year forever. China is unique in world history for having done it for 30 years.
－－没有一个国家能永远以10%的速度增长。过去30年中国做到了这一点。在世界历史上，这也是独一无二的。
-- China needs to 'rebalance' its economy so it relies more on consumer spending and less on investment because China will soon reach diminishing returns with its investment strategy.
－－中国必须调整经济结构以减少对投资的依赖，扩大国内消费支出的规模，实现经济的再平衡。因为中国投资策略的收益将很快开始递减。
-- China's population is aging rapidly , which is usually a bad sign for economic vitality.
－－中国人口老龄化速度很快，这对于经济活力来说通常是一个不利的信号。
-- China needs to innovate. Continued productivity improvements are crucial for continued fast growth.
－－中国需要创新。生产力的持续提升是经济持续快速增长的必要条件。
Where the debaters disagree is on whether China can manage to turns its potential negatives into positives.
双方存在争议的是：中国能否成功地将潜在的不利因素转换成有利因素。
Morgan Stanley analysts Qing Wang, Steven Zhang and Ernest Ho note that economic growth tends to decelerateâ 'sometimes rapidly-- when GDP per capita reaches about $7,000, as calculated by a form of purchasing power parity, which tries to equalize prices in different countries. China surpassed that level in 2008. "If history is a guide and the law of gravity applies to China," the three analysts write. "China's economic growth is set to slow," as Japan and Korea did when they hit the $7,000 mark.
摩根士丹利三位分析师王庆、章俊（Steven Zhang）以及何泓哲（Ernest Ho）注意到，按购买力平价计算，当人均GDP达到约7,000美元时，经济增长速度往往开始下降，有时还很快。中国在2008年就超过了上述水平。三位分析师写道，如果历史能够借鉴，且重力原理适用于中国，那么中国的经济增长将注定放缓，就像日本和韩国达到7,000美元的标杆后经历的那样。
But unlike those two nations, China has an ace in the hole, says Mr. Wang. It's a continental-sized economy, which means that it can continue to grow rapidly by using its geographic size and population heft. It can encourage lower-end manufacturing to move to the lower-paid western part of the country â ' a trend that's already happening -- and it can encourage young rural residents to move to the cities to work in plants and factories there. The farm-to-city migration will diminish the negative effect of the overall aging of the Chinese population, the Morgan Stanley analysts argue.
但在王庆看来，与日韩不同的是，中国还手握一张王牌：中国的大陆面积庞大，这意味着中国能够利用其国土面积和人口规模继续快速发展。中国可以鼓励低端制造业向工资较低的西部地区转移（事实上中国已经在这么做），还可以鼓励年轻的农村人口转移到城市的工厂工作。在摩根士丹利的分析师看来，农村人口到城市的迁移将削弱中国人口整体老龄化的负面影响。
"There is no candidate to replace China any time soon (as the world's factory floor) except India," says Mr. Wang. "But India isn't ready given its lack of infrastructure."
王庆说，除印度外，没有哪个国家有望很快取代中国成为世界工厂。不过，鉴于印度基础设施的缺乏，印度还没有准备好取代中国。
Most controversially perhaps, the analysts predict what they call "a golden age of consumption." China's consumption as percentage of GDP is currently among the lowest in the world, which many analysts attribute to cautious Chinese families saving money for their retirements or to pay for healthcare bills. But Mr. Wang says Chinese consumers aren't waiting for the government to build a new social safety net before they spend more. They're waiting to make more money, which they'll do as labor demand boosts wages over the coming decade. Consumer spending zoomed in Korea and Japan after those countries reached the $7,000 mark.
或许最具争议的是，这三位分析师预测会出现“消费的黄金时代”。中国消费占GDP的比重目前属全球最低之列，很多分析人士将其归因于谨慎的中国家庭为退休或支付医疗费而存钱。不过，王庆说，中国消费者少花钱，并不是为了等待政府建立新的社会保障制度，而是在等待挣更多的钱；随着未来10年对劳动力的需求推动工资增长，人们的收入会增加。在韩国和日本的人均GDP达到7,000美元大关后，这两个国家的消费支出大幅上升。
The big downside, says Mr. Wang, is that prices are likely to rise in China, with inflation increasing from an average of 1.9% in the past decade to around twice that, or more, through 2020. That means China will become a source of inflation for the rest of the world, which imports its goods, rather than a source of price stability or even deflation as it has been in the past.
王庆说，一个主要的不利因素是中国的物价很可能会上升，至2020年通货膨胀率将较过去10年平均的1.9%约涨一倍甚至更多。这就意味着中国将成为其他进口中国产品的国家和地区的通胀来源，而不是像过去一样是价格稳定甚至通货紧缩的来源。
Of course, the Morgan Stanley analysts could wind up to be too optimistic. In paper released last month, Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley, Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank and Kwanho Shin of Korea University, came up with their own calculations of when growth is likely to slow, and figured China would smash that speed bump around 2015.
当然，摩根士丹利的分析师们可能过于乐观了。在上个月公布的报告中，加州大学伯克利分校(University of California at Berkeley)的艾琴格林(Barry Eichengreen)、亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)的Donghyun Park和高丽大学(Korea University)的Kwanho Shin对增长何时可能会放缓也进行了计算，他们得出中国将在大约2015年达到“减速带”。
That paper said the growth rates of other fast growing nations fell by at least two percentage points once they hit a certain income level. In China's case that would reduce growth to around 8%, essentially the same figure that the Morgan Stanley analysts forecast. But Messrs Eichengreen, Park and Shin report that other economists estimate that China's growth could slow to between 5% and 6% annually between now and 2030, a far sharper decline than the Morgan Stanley trio anticipate.
他们的报告说，其他经济迅速增长的国家在达到某个收入水平后，经济增速下滑了至少两个百分点。换句话说，届时中国的增速将降至约8%，这与摩根士丹利分析师们的预测实际上是一致的。不过，艾琴格林、Park和Shin说，据其他经济学家估计，从现在到2030年，中国经济年增速可能会放缓至5%到6%，比摩根士丹利三位分析师预测的减速程度要大的多。
