China could be preparing to hit the accelerator on currency appreciation. But before we all get carried away, the yuan isn't necessarily going to go up forever.
中国可能正在为踩下人民币升值的油门做准备，但在所有人欢呼雀跃之前，请别忘了，人民币不一定永远保持升势。
You can see that view in the market's ambivalence toward longer-dated yuan debt sold in Hong Kong. The tenor of most of those products is between one and three years. Investors appear confident of appreciation over that time frame, bankers say. After that, it's a crap shoot.
Associated Press在山东临沂一家农村信用合作社，一位职员正在点人民币。市场对于在香港出售的较长期人民币计价债券的态度摇摆不定，这其中就体现了上述观点。那些人民币产品中，大多数是一年至三年期。银行业人士说，似乎投资者对这段时期内的人民币升值抱有信心，而超过这个时间段，就成了掷骰子的赌博游戏。
They're right to be cautious. Most people think the government has the wherewithal to stave off a future banking crisis, but given the volume of China's lending in recent years as part of an officially sanctioned stimulus plan, the chances that things get ugly and lead to currency stasis or a selloff aren't negligible.
投资者所持的谨慎态度没错。大多数人认为，中国政府有能力避免日后发生银行危机，但考虑到中国近年来的放贷数量(这是官方认可的经济刺激计划的一部分)，形势变糟以及出现货币滞涨或抛售的可能性不容忽视。
In the shorter term, of course, the consensus is that the yuan (also known as the renminbi, or RMB) is a one-way bet. What's more, its gains look ready to pick up speed.
当然，短期来看，目前一致认为人民币是一个单向赌注。另外，人民币的升值步伐看似要加快。
The case for faster yuan appreciation got a boost from comments by Chinese officials, including Premier Wen Jiabao and a top official at the People's Bank of China, suggesting a stronger currency could be a weapon against inflation. China's consumer-price index rose 5.4% in March and has been gathering steam despite repeated credit tightening by the country's central bank. A stronger yuan lowers the effective cost of imported goods. Li-Gang Liu, China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, predicts pressure from rising prices for imports like oil, iron ore and soybeans will push the yuan-dollar rate 6% higher for the year.
人民币或将快速升值从中国国务院总理温家宝和中国央行行长周小川等多位中国官员讲话的提振，暗示人民币升值或许是抵御通货膨胀的有力武器。3月份中国消费者价格指数(CPI)同比升5.4%，尽管央行一再收紧信贷政策，但CPI的升势丝毫未减。人民币升值可减少进口商品的实际成本。澳新银行(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group)研究中国问题的经济学家刘利刚预测，石油、铁矿石和大豆等进口商品价格不断上涨带来的压力将推动人民币兑美元今年累计升值6%。
The one-way bet makes things challenging for Chinese policy makers. Even if they see the logic behind pushing the currency higher, they worry that speculators lured by the certainty of the bet will find their way around the country's capital controls (as they often have) and flood their economy with potentially destabilizing “hot money.”
对于中国决策者而言，单向押注人民币可使情况变得富于挑战性。即使他们知道提高人民币汇率的做法是有道理的，他们也仍会担心投机者因受到押注必赢的诱惑，会想尽办法避开中国的资本控制(这是他们的经常做法)，并让那些可能极不稳定的“热钱”大规模涌入中国经济。
This is one reason some speculate China's leaders might opt for a one-time, hefty currency revaluation of, say, 10%. The idea is that such a move would eliminate appreciation pressure in one fell swoop and allow the PBOC a chance to keep the market guessing as to the yuan's future direction. However, there's no indication the idea is anything more than talk, and given the damage such a move would inflict on Chinese exporters and employment, China's penchant for gradualism is probably a safer bet.
这是为什么有些人推测中国领导人可能选择让人民币一次性大幅升值10%的一个原因。这样做将一举消除人民币的升值压力，也使得中国央行有可能让市场持续猜测人民币的未来走势。然而，没有迹象显示这种想法只是说说而已。鉴于此举给中国出口商和就业将带来负面影响，中国偏爱的渐进式举措可能是更保险的做法。
Expectations of yuan appreciation are the fuel that is driving rapid growth in the offshore market for China's currency, particularly in Hong Kong. International investors are piling money into offshore-yuan bonds despite yields far lower than those available to domestic investors. The reason is their conviction that a strengthening renminbi will goose their dollar-based returns to levels well beyond what they can earn with an investment in U.S. dollars, or Hong Kong dollars, which are pegged to the greenback.
人民币升值预期是人民币离岸市场、特别是在香港的离岸市场迅速成长的推动力。虽然人民币离岸债券收益率远低于境内投资者可获得的收益率，但境外投资者依然在把大量资金投入人民币离岸债券。原因在于，他们相信人民币的升值将会使他们以美元计算的投资回报远远高于用美元或与美元挂钩的港元投资所能获得的回报。
'The reason that RMB internationalization is exciting in Hong Kong, that people are playing it, is the appreciation,' says Romnesh Lamba, executive vice president and head of market development at Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., the owner of Hong Kong's stock exchange.
香港交易及结算所有限公司(Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd.)行政副总裁兼市场发展执行总监罗力(Romnesh Lamba)说，人民币国际化在香港激动人心，大家都在参与，原因就在于升值。
HKEx is taking advantage of those expectations by launching its newest toy, the first yuan-denominated stock sold outside mainland China, which begins trading on Friday. “If you take the appreciation away, they may not play it,” he says, “and the equity product may never take off.”
为了利用人民币升值预期获利，港交所推出它的最新产品，也就是第一只在中国内地以外发行的人民币股票。这只股票将在周五开始交易。罗力说，如果没有升值因素，他们可能就不会参与其中了，股权产品可能也永远无法起步。
Even short term, though, appreciation may not be such a sure thing.
但是，哪怕就是短线来看，升值也不是一件十分确定的事情。
Robert Reilly, co-head of flow fixed income and currencies for Asia at Société Générale, calls it a high-risk assumption. He points to the potential impact on global markets from sovereign-debt problems in Europe and mounting concerns over the outlook for U.S. government debt.
法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)固定收益和外汇业务亚洲区联席负责人将人民币的升值称为一种高风险假设。他列举的理由包括欧洲主权债务危机可能对全球市场造成的影响，以及人们对美国国债前景越来越浓重的担忧。
"If we see that hit U.S. investor confidence, and that hits equities, all bets are off the table for China to appreciate the currency," he says.
他说，如果美国投资者信心因此受到打击，股市受到打击，那么就无法指望中国允许人民币升值了。
For now, underpinned by widespread confidence in the appreciation story, the yuan's internationalization marches on. Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong's banking system could reach one trillion yuan ($154 billion) by the end of the year, some economists believe, up from 407 billion yuan at the end of February. At that point, the market might be deep enough to weather a change in the currency's outlook.
目前在普遍的升值预期支撑下，人民币国际化继续推进。一些经济学家相信，香港银行系统的人民币存款有望在年内从2月底的4,070亿元增至1万亿元（合1,540亿美元）。届时市场的深度或许足以承受人民币汇率预期的变化。
Still, "if the RMB were to be a depreciating currency, there would probably be a lack of strong demand for that," says Mr. Li, the ANZ economist. "Definitely the market would turn."
但澳新银行的刘利刚说，如果人民币是在贬值，可能就不存在强劲需求，市场肯定会发生转折。
