玉米会成为当年的大豆吗？
In 2001, China opened up its soybean industry to imports. Within three years, it moved from near-self sufficiency to being the world's largest importer. Now China is starting to look overseas for corn.
2001年，中国开放了大豆产业，允许大豆进口。三年内，中国从大豆接近自给自足变为全球最大的大豆进口国。现在，中国又开始在海外寻找玉米。
Rising incomes are whetting China's appetite for a better diet, meaning rising demand for corn. In the short term, increasing domestic production will be hard. Indeed, China imported 1.6 million tons of corn in 2010, up 18-fold from 2009. The U.S. Grains Council forecasts China will import four million to five million tons this year, equivalent to 5% of the global corn trade at a time of low stocks.
Getty Images中国开始寻求从海外市场进口玉米。收入的增加令中国人提高膳食标准的胃口大开，这也意味着对玉米的需求会增加。短期内增加国内产能非常困难。中国2010年进口了160万吨玉米，是2009年的19倍。美国谷物理事会（U.S. Grains Council）预测，今年中国将进口400万至500万吨玉米。在眼下库存很低的时候，这相当于全球玉米贸易量的5%。
Yet corn bulls may be too optimistic. Corn is at a record $7.80 a bushel in Chicago, in part because its use to make ethanol in the U.S. links it to high oil prices. Global prices, therefore, are 23% higher than in China. That price difference discourages imports. They are unlikely to rise significantly until that gap closes which could happen if, say, oil prices cool off or South American harvests are bigger than expected.
但因此看涨玉米价格未免过于乐观。目前芝加哥商品交易所每蒲式耳玉米为7.80美元，这是因为高油价导致部分玉米被用作制造乙醇的原料。全球玉米价格因此比中国国内高出了23%。价差会抑制进口。除非价差能够缩小，否则进口量不会大幅上升。而这也并非不可能发生：如果油价回落或南美玉米收成好于预期，价差自然会缩小。
Politics is another wild card. Beijing has been reluctant to allow commercialization of genetically modified seeds. Yet their adoption could help China increase its corn yield from 5.3 tons per hectare towards the 9.6 tons enjoyed in the U.S. If Beijing backs GM foods, and the Chinese public can be persuaded to eat them, they could also restrain imports.
而政治是另一个不确定的因素。中国政府一直不愿批准转基因种子的商业化。但采用转基因技术有助中国提高玉米产量，从当前每公顷5.3吨提高至美国的每公顷9.6吨的水平。如果中国政府支持转基因食品，中国民众也能够接受并消费此类食品，那么这也会抑制玉米的进口。
High international prices in the short term and options to raise yields in the long term mean corn isn't yet in the same category as soy beans. An increase in imports isn't in doubt. Its extent and timing are.
短期内国际玉米价格高企以及长期内为了提高产量所面临的选择意味着玉米和大豆的情况并不相同。玉米进口量的增加确定无疑，但不确定的是增加的幅度以及开始的时间点。
