Just when the sun seemed to be coming out, storm clouds are gathering on the economic horizon.
几个月前，美国经济的好转速度似乎比经济预测人士料想的要快。几乎没有人预计到美国经济会迅速反弹，但是，许多人调高了今年的经济增长预期。人们寄希望于私营企业终于可以雇佣足够多的员工以使失业率稳步下降（即使不能快速下降）。
A couple of months ago, the U.S. economy seemed to be improving faster than economic weathermen had expected. Few anticipated the U.S. would rebound quickly, but many marked up predictions for economic growth this year. The hope was that private employers finally were ready to hire enough to bring unemployment down steadily, even if not rapidly.
如果幸运的话，美国经济可能进一步好转。显然股市正是这么认为的，因为在过去两年中，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)几乎上涨了一倍。但是，在把雨伞收起来之前，应该考虑一下这种风险：仍然高达8.9%的失业率会导致经济复苏陷入令人痛苦的缓慢境地。哪些方面可能出现问题呢？
With some luck, the U.S. economy still might get better from here. The stock market thinks so: The S&P 500 has nearly doubled in the past two years. But before putting away the umbrellas, consider the threats to a distressingly slow recovery marred by a still-high 8.9% unemployment rate. What could go wrong?
第一个值得担忧的问题是：石油。两个月前，没有人预料到胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)会倒台，也没有人想到卡扎菲(Moammar Gadhafi)政权会摇摇欲坠。利比亚石油供应的中断以及对中东其他地区不稳定局势的忧虑使油价在过去六个月中每桶上涨了30美元。
Worry No. 1: Oil. Two months ago, no one expected Hosni Mubarak would be out of power and Moammar Gadhafi would be struggling to hold on. The disruption of oil supplies from Libya and fear of instability elsewhere in the Middle East have pushed oil prices up $30 a barrel over the past six months.
这个问题不足以导致美国经济重新陷入衰退。一个广泛采用的经验法则是：油价每上涨10美元，将使美国经济增长率被拉低0.2个百分点。在2月初接受《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家称，油价只有在达到每桶125美元之后才会威胁到美国经济的复苏。由于越来越重要的布伦特原油价格目前大约在114美元，西德州中质油价格则在105美元左右，到目前为止油价还没有对美国经济构成威胁。
That's not enough to trigger renewed recession. A widely used rule of thumb says each sustained $10-a-barrel increase in oil prices shaves 0.2 percentage point off U.S. growth. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in early February said oil prices would have to get above $125 a barrel 'to threaten the U.S. recovery.' with the increasingly important Brent benchmark now about $114 and West Texas Intermediate around $105, we're shy of that--so far.
是的，美国已经不再像从前那么容易受油价波动冲击。而且沙乌地阿拉伯将向市场注入更多原油以补充利比亚所带来的供应缺口。但是，由于市场不是完全确信沙特王室能够保持整个国家的团结，油价还是有继续上涨的风险，这将会给美国经济带来伤害。
Yes, the U.S. isn't as vulnerable to oil shocks as it once was. Yes, Saudi Arabia will pump more oil to compensate for less from Libya. But with markets not completely sure Saudi royalty can hold the country together, the risk is that oil prices keep rising--and that would hurt.
第二个值得担忧的问题是：富裕国家的政府。经济衰退是由金融力量的失调引起的。全球政府做出的反应（尽管存在这样或那样的瑕疵）将此次危机带来的危害限制在一定范围内。目前所面临的威胁是政府政策本身将成为问题之源，尤其是财政政策。
Worry No. 2: Rich-country governments. The recession was triggered by a disturbance in the financial force. The response of global governments, despite all the flaws, limited the damage. Today's threat is that government policies themselves, particularly fiscal ones, will be the cause of problems.
其中的一个风险是，负债累累的政府在削减支出或提高税收方面行动过快，使经济复苏在稳固之前就被消弱了根基。英国政府正在厉行节俭，通过让英镑贬值来提振出口，从而依靠私人部门的就业来抵消公共部门裁员的影响。就美国而言，这种威胁更多地来自州政府和地方政府削减支出，而不是最终在国会通过的今年的支出预算案。
One risk is that debt-burdened governments move too quickly to cut spending or raise taxes, undercutting the recovery before it can stand on its own. The U.K. is running an experiment in austerity, counting on the private sector (with a boost to exports from a depreciating British pound) to offset public-sector layoffs. In the U.S., the threat is more from state and local government cutbacks than from whatever Congress ends up doing with this year's spending bills.
另一个风险是，美国和欧洲的政客们不能应对更加重大的长期财政问题，促使选民和市场认为他们无法处理好自己分内的事务，并导致长期利率在经济能够承受之前就上升。
Another is that politicians in the U.S. and Europe fail to cope with bigger, long-term fiscal issues, prompting voters and markets to conclude that they can't manage their affairs and triggering an increase in long-term interest rates before the economy can handle them.
对美国来说，需要制定一个可靠的计划来抑制支出和增加收入。在上周举行的国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的一个论坛上，前任墨西哥央行行长吉列尔莫•奥尔蒂斯(Guillermo Ortiz)抱怨道，美国国内还未能就一个可靠的财政整顿计划达成政治共识，这是全球经济所面临的最危险的事情之一。对欧洲来说，需要对一个显而易见的痛苦现实做出反应，那就是：当前的这种格局无法维持。共同使用欧元的各个国家的劳动力成本和生产率趋势各不相同，银行体系脆弱，对紧缩财政政策的看法非常矛盾，在这样一个大陆，单一货币体系无法顺利运行。
For the U.S., it's about a credible plan to restrain spending and raise revenue. At an International Monetary Fund forum this week, Guillermo Ortiz, the former Mexican central banker, complained: 'The political consensus in the U.S. has not provided a credible plan for fiscal consolidation and that is one of the greatest dangers for the world economy.' For Europe, it's about responding to a painfully obvious reality: The current setup is unsustainable. A single currency cannot function smoothly on a continent with diverging labor cost and productivity trends, fragile banks and ambivalence about constraining fiscal policies in nations that share the euro.
第三个值得担忧的问题是：新兴市场。不错，他们现在的确趾高气昂。这些国家的官员们表现出幸灾乐祸的情绪，并吹嘘他们如何比别的国家更好地经受住了奥尔蒂斯所称的“北大西洋金融危机”。但这可能滋生出不恰当的骄傲自满情绪。
Worry No. 3: Emerging markets. Oh, they're cocky now, their officials bursting with schadenfreude and boasting how much better they withstood what Mr. Ortiz pointedly described as 'the North Atlantic financial crisis.' But that can breed inappropriate complacency.
最成功的新兴市场经济体——中国及其诸邻国还有巴西——正面临着增长速度可能超出其经济承载能力的风险，由此导致的后果是通货膨胀——工资、物价、房地产和其他资产的价格均大幅上涨。
The most successful emerging-market economies--China and its neighbors, as well as Brazil--are confronting growth that threatens to outstrip their economies' capacity, the result of which is inflation--in wages and prices, in property and other asset prices.
从某种角度看，这是一个为世人所熟悉的问题，但它发生在新的环境背景下。美国、欧洲和日本所采用的超低利率可以抵制通货膨胀和资产泡沫，但这对新兴市场来说较难实行。新兴市场通常所采取的提高利率的手段会吸引资本流入，也会带来对本国出口商不利的较高汇率。
In one sense, this is a familiar problem. But it comes in a new context. Unusually low interest rates in the U.S., Europe and Japan make the job of resisting inflation and bubbles harder for emerging markets. Raising interest rates, the usual cure, lures capital and brings higher exchange rates with unwelcome effects on exporters.
另外，现在新兴市场的规模扩大了很多，这里发生的事情会影响到别的市场，尤其是中国。正如诺贝尔经济学奖获得者迈克尔•斯宾塞(Michael Spence)上周所说的那样：新兴市场在战后的大部分时间内对全球体系的系统性影响一直相对较小，现在，这种美好时代已经一去不复返了。
And emerging markets are much bigger now: What happens in China, in particular, doesn't stay in China. As Nobel laureate Michael Spence observed this week, 'The emerging markets enjoyed the luxury for much of the post-war period of having relatively small systemic effects on the global system, and that is what's no longer true.'
过分的担忧会使人丧失行动能力，这是不健康的。但是，忧患意识能带来具有适应性的行为，能使政策制定者们采取行动降低风险，防患于未然。现在正是这么做的好时候。
Worrying too much leads to paralysis. That's not healthy. But it can also prompt adaptive behavior. It can lead policy makers to act to reduce risks before they become realities. This would be a good time for that.
